Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation

Chang Sun , Serge Richard (1) , Takemasa Miyoshi , Naohiro Tsuzu

1 PSPM - Probabilités, statistique, physique mathématique

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number is one of the main outcomes of our approach. Other unknown parameters are also evaluated. Uncertain quantities, such as, for example, the probability that an infected agent develops symptoms, are tested and discussed, and the stability of our computations is examined. Detailed explanations are provided for the model and for the assimilation process.

Mots clés: agent-based model data assimilation COVID-19 effective reproduction number MSC: 92D30; agent-based model; data assimilation; COVID-19; effective reproduction number MSC: 92D30

Domaines: Physique mathématique [math-ph]

Chang Sun, Serge Richard, Takemasa Miyoshi, Naohiro Tsuzu. Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2022, 11, ⟨10.3390/jcm11092401⟩. ⟨hal-03904651⟩