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Global Carbon Budget 2022

Pierre Friedlingstein 1 Michael O'Sullivan 2 Matthew Jones 3 Robbie Andrew 4 Luke Gregor 5 Judith Hauck 6 Corinne Le Quéré 7 Ingrid Luijkx 8 Are Olsen 9, 10 Glen Peters 4 Wouter Peters 11 Julia Pongratz 12, 13 Clemens Schwingshackl 4 Stephen Sitch 14 Josep Canadell 15 Philippe Ciais 16 Robert Jackson 17 Simone Alin Ramdane Alkama 18 Almut Arneth 19 Vivek Arora 20 Nicholas Bates Meike Becker Nicolas Bellouin Henry Bittig Laurent Bopp Frédéric Chevallier Louise Chini Margot Cronin Wiley Evans Stefanie Falk Richard Feely Thomas Gasser Marion Gehlen Thanos Gkritzalis Lucas Gloege Giacomo Grassi Nicolas Gruber Özgür Gürses Ian Harris Matthew Hefner Richard Houghton George Hurtt Yosuke Iida Tatiana Ilyina Atul Jain Annika Jersild Koji Kadono Etsushi Kato Daniel Kennedy Kees Klein Goldewijk Jürgen Knauer Jan Ivar Korsbakken Peter Landschützer Nathalie Lefèvre Keith Lindsay Junjie Liu Zhu Liu Gregg Marland Nicolas Mayot Matthew Mcgrath Nicolas Metzl Natalie Monacci David Munro Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka Yosuke Niwa Kevin O'Brien Tsuneo Ono Paul Palmer Naiqing Pan Denis Pierrot Katie Pocock Benjamin Poulter Laure Resplandy Eddy Robertson Christian Rödenbeck Carmen Rodriguez Thais Rosan Jörg Schwinger Roland Séférian Jamie Shutler Ingunn Skjelvan Tobias Steinhoff Qing Sun Adrienne Sutton Colm Sweeney Shintaro Takao Toste Tanhua Pieter Tans Xiangjun Tian Hanqin Tian Bronte Tilbrook Hiroyuki Tsujino Francesco Tubiello Guido van der Werf Anthony Walker Rik Wanninkhof Chris Whitehead Anna Willstrand Wranne Rebecca Wright Wenping Yuan Chao Yue Xu Yue Sönke Zaehle Jiye Zeng Bo Zheng 
Abstract : Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).
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Submitted on : Wednesday, November 23, 2022 - 8:54:08 AM
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Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew Jones, Robbie Andrew, Luke Gregor, et al.. Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth System Science Data, 2022, 14 (11), pp.4811-4900. ⟨10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022⟩. ⟨hal-03863123⟩

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