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Evolution, modeling and mapping of olive grove yields in the province of Jaen, Spain (1959-2018)

Abstract : Olive growers in Andalusia are concerned about the impact of climate change on their activity, which is very important in terms of surface area, production and income. In an attempt to answer these questions, this work first describes the evolution of climate and annual yields of rainfed and irrigated olive groves in the province of Jaén (Andalusia) since the 1950s. Second, the relationships between rainfed and irrigated yields on one side and climatic variables on the other side are modelled. Finally, the models allow the calculation and mapping of the current theoretical spatial distribution of yields. Yields vary greatly from year to year, but are generally higher in irrigated than in rainfed orchards. Yields have risen sharply since the end of the 1950s, stabilizing since the end of the 1990s, with an average over the 1996-2018 period of 30 q/ha and 51 q/ha in irrigated and rainfed areas, respectively. Meanwhile, the mean temperatures over the olive growing area of the province of Jaén, have increased, especially for daytime and during the hot season. Rainfall, which is highly variable over the studied area, has decreased by 16% after 1979. Between 1996 and 2018, the climatic variables explaining best olive yields for rainfed areas are annual rainfall and minimum temperatures in autumn and August. Concerning irrigated areas, autumn rainfall and minimum temperatures, maximum summer temperatures and minimum February temperatures are the most relevant climatic variables. Theoretical yield values for rainfed and irrigated olive groves are calculated by multiple regression (1996-2018), validated by cross-validation. Theoretical yield values are then mapped on 4km side pixels. Although the simulated and averaged values (1996-2018) are close to the observed provincial values, with a mean error of 6 q/ha in irrigated and rainfed areas, their spatial distribution is not entirely consistent with some information available at the communal level. It will therefore be necessary to improve the modeling of yields and their mapping before moving on to the next step: simulating and mapping potential future yields, taking into account climate change, in order to have a tool for discussion with olive growers and to help them prepare the adaptation of their activity.
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https://hal-cnrs.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03748639
Contributor : Marianne Cohen Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, August 9, 2022 - 6:35:50 PM
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Fatma Arfaoui, Marianne Cohen, Ludovic Oudin, Josyane Ronchail. Evolution, modeling and mapping of olive grove yields in the province of Jaen, Spain (1959-2018). Climatologie, Association Internationale de Climatologie, 2021, 18, pp.4. ⟨10.1051/climat/202118004⟩. ⟨hal-03748639⟩

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