Irregular timing of population cycles - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Oikos Year : 2022

Irregular timing of population cycles

(1) , (2) , (3) , (4) , (5)
1
2
3
4
5

Abstract

Despite considerable study of population cycles, the striking variability of cycle periods in many cyclic populations has received relatively little attention. Mathematical models of cyclic population dynamics have historically exhibited much greater regularity in cycle periods than many real populations, even when accounting for environmental stochasticity. We contend, however, that the recent focus on understanding the impact of long, transient but recurrent epochs within population oscillations points the way to a previously unrecognized means by which environmental stochasticity can create cycle period variation. Specifically, consumer–resource cycles that bring the populations near a saddle point (a combination of population sizes toward which the populations tend, before eventually transitioning to substantially different levels) may be subject to a slow passage effect that has been dubbed a ‘saddle crawlby'. In this study, we illustrate how stochasticity that generates variability in how close predator and prey populations come to saddles can result in substantial variability in the durations of crawlbys and, as a result, in the periods of population cycles. Our work suggests a new mechanistic hypothesis to explain an important factor in the irregular timing of population cycles and provides a basis for understanding when environmental stochasticity is, and is not, expected to generate cyclic dynamics with variability across periods.
Embargoed file
Embargoed file
0 2 19
Year Month Jours
Avant la publication

Dates and versions

hal-03445622 , version 1 (26-11-2021)
hal-03445622 , version 2 (28-11-2022)

Licence

Attribution - CC BY 4.0

Identifiers

Cite

Jonathan E Rubin, David J Hearn, Priscilla E Greenwood, Todd L. Parsons, Karen C Abbott. Irregular timing of population cycles. Oikos, In press, pp.e09290. ⟨10.1111/oik.09290⟩. ⟨hal-03445622v2⟩
36 View
21 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More