New nonintrusive method of predicting adult stature from the age of 13 years using chronological age and maturity. Validation in adolescent basketball players
Résumé
The purpose of this study was to define a new method to estimate the adult height of an individual from data recorded during a single and nonintrusive childhood examination. The data required are maturity stage and stature in a standing position. Specific growth curves were obtained from longitudinal data collected from 125 sedentary boys aged from 12 to 17.5 years, during 5 consecutive years. The sample comprise of 1234 measurements.
The puberty stages were based on facial, axillary hair growth and changing voice with four stages: stage 1 (ST1, below the puberty), stage 2 (ST2, prepubescent), stage 3 (ST3, para pubescent), and stage 4 (ST4, pubescent). They were classified as early, standard, or late maturation.
Between the different maturation groups, significant differences were found for the age of peak height velocity (APHV). From 160 to 164 months, we found a connection between the pubertal stages and the APHV without possible intersection. Significant differences were observed between APHV for each maturation group, which enable to model average curves of the stature for each puberty group.
To validate the new model, we predicted young basketball players’ adult stature. First, data were collected (height and stage of puberty) a single time for age between 160 and 164 months. From our models of sedentary reference subjects we estimated the adult stature. In a second time, these estimations were compared to the real measured stature at 18 years old (216 months).
For each basketball player we calculated the deviation from the average value obtained on the first population expressed as standard deviation (Z‐score).
The relation between the predicted stature and the adult stature for overall basketball population shows a correlation with r = 0.98 and SEE = 1.65 cm. The predictions lie within +/− 0.3cm, 98% of the time.
This study shows that the knowledge of biological maturation (peak of height velocity) and maturity (delayed, standard or advanced puberty) make possible to develop new stature growth curves, and to predict adult stature.
This technique is a new valid nonintrusive and accurate method, which permits to predict adult stature. It was validated with a population of basketball players and constitutes an advance in the detection and the orientation of future basketball players.