Transformative Change Needs Direction

Sander Jacobs (1) , Fernando Santos-Martín (2) , Eeva Primmer (3) , Fanny Boeraeve (4) , Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez (5) , Vânia Proença (6) , Martin Schlaepfer (7) , Lluis Brotons (8, 5) , Robert Dunford (9) , Sandra Lavorel (10) , Antoine Guisan (11) , Joachim Claudet (12) , Zuzana Harmáčková (13) , Inge Liekens (14) , Jennifer Hauck (15) , Kasper Kok (16) , Yves Zinngrebe (17) , Simona Pedde (16) , Bálint Czúcz (18, 19) , Cosimo Solidoro (20) , Matthew Cantele (21) , Christian Rixen (22) , Anna Heck (1) , Jomme Desair (1) , Tobias Plieninger (23) , Paula Harrison (24)

1 INBO - Research Institute for Nature and Forest
2 University King Juan Carlos [Madrid]
3 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
4 Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
5 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries
6 ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
7 EnviroSPACE Laboratory - Forel Institute
8 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
9 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford]
10 LECA - Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine
11 DEE - Department of Ecology and Evolution [UNIL, Lausanne] = Département d'écologie et évolution
12 CRIOBE - Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement
13 CAS - Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
14 VITO - Flemish Institute for Technological Research
15 CoKnow Consulting
16 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
17 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
18 CTE/DB - Centre Thématique Européen sur la Diversité Biologique
19 Centre for Ecological Research [Budapest]
20 OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
21 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
22 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
23 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
24 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Lancaster]

Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost–benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement; Sciences de l'Homme et Société

Sander Jacobs, Fernando Santos-Martín, Eeva Primmer, Fanny Boeraeve, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez, et al.. Transformative Change Needs Direction. Sustainability, 2022, Ecosystem Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation for Sustainable Development, 14 (22), pp.14844. ⟨10.3390/su142214844⟩. ⟨hal-03873621⟩